Congratulations to the winners of the Willingdon tournament who were
- Prosenjit Manna and Bhaskar Sarkar - Group A
- Arvind Ranasaria and Peiyush Jain - Group B
- Vrinda Jhunjhunwala and Rajeev Khandelwal - Group C.
I looked forward to this event, which kicked off on Sunday, January 26, as a chance to pit my skills against stalwarts while not having to travel out of Mumbai. The qualifying, as Mahesh Rohera put it, is definitely “Saanp Seedi.” This was a yoyo for most except the top qualifying pair who were stuck to first position with Fevicol ki jod (This article was penned on Monday night, after the qualifying). The pairs brought to me memories of my childhood, not least because of the sweltering playing conditions. Global warming is real, people!
We came across so many deals made by the sadist computer, who punished the masochistic optimist bridge player. But one deal that kept me awake through the better part of the night was a 3NT contract I played going down in the last round of the qualifiers which sealed our fate.
The auction was
West North East South
- P 1♥ P
2♣ P 2♦ P
2♠ P 3♦ P
2♣ was alerted as Game Force with minimum 2 clubs. However the bid of 2♠ made it clear that declarer had 5 clubs, 4 spades and less than 3 hearts.
A small spade was led and won with the Ace and spade backed- won with the King and spade returned again. Now comes the dilemma. There are 7 top tricks now ( 2 hearts, 2 diamonds, A♣ and the two spades) . Declarer now has a problem of plenty for the remaining tricks. Should she establish clubs or Diamonds or hearts?
Let’s look at clubs. If declarer played A and Q losing to King and tried to establish clubs, she would need the ♣10 to fall in three rounds. In case the ♣10 doesn’t fall on the third round, she has entry issues. If either defenders backed a diamond, her communication would be severed to a large extent and she will have to use the K heart to enter the closed hand, which means the club suit is out of bounds. The probability of the clubs getting established works out to 39% approximately (the probability of ♣10 falling in the second round, and if it does not fall, then the probability of it falling in three).
If the ♣10 doesn’t fall then the declarers’s hope would rest on ♦QJ of diamond falling under AK or ♥QJ of hearts falling under AK both of which don’t add up much over 1%. So the total chance in this line of play is 40% approximately.
Let’s look at diamonds.
The declarer has lost two spades. If diamonds break 3-3 (36%) no defense can break the contract. In case it doesn’t, the contract would still make if the ♥QJ fell under AK - a minuscule chance. If diamonds break 4/2 and a club is backed after winning the first diamond, the contract will go down only if the ♣K is offside. This works out to 31% (50% of 62%). The percentage for this line of play adds up to 68% approximately.
Let’s look a hearts. Hearts 3-3 is also 36%. Also if hearts break 4-2 and honours are divided missing the ♥8 means a certain down. ( Note that there is a tiny chance of honour - 8 doubleton.) Establishing hearts completely gives up on the closed hand.
There is one other line ( which was brought to my attention by Subhash Bhavnani). Once your spades are established, declarer plays A and Q of club establishing his 8th trick. If ♣10 falls he is through (17.7%). Now he ducks a diamond and tests for a 3-3 break. If diamonds break he is through ( 36%). In case Diamonds don’t break, play ♥K, cash ♣J and check to see if ♣10 falls ( 21.4%). If this also doesn’t deliver, play ♥9 hoping for North or South to have QJxx of hearts and no ♣10 and no diamond honor ( this roughly comes to less than 5% I think). This line of play of combining multiple chances is the highest ( and unfortunately did not occur to me on table)
I took the line of establishing diamonds. However the sadist computer made ♣10 fall in three and the diamonds break badly and the ♣King offside. Such is life's snakes and ladders.
PS: Thanks to Subhash Bhavnani for technical edits.
Disclaimer : All opinions are entirely those of the author and are no reflection of the views of the BridgeFromHome Team.